If Trump is elected president in 2024, will nuclear energy generation be above 800 TWh in 2028?

Question

Resolves YES if Trump is elected president of the US in the 2024 election and the Ember Institute reports ≥ 800 TWh of nuclear energy production for the US in 2028, NO if < 800 TWh of nuclear energy production, and N/A if Trump is not elected president.

If the Ember Institute does not publish data for 2028 by the end of 2030, or has not published data for 2026 by the end of 2028, then the Energy Institute data will be used instead. If the Energy Institute does not meet those conditions either, then I will use whichever data source Our World In Data uses; if there is no source by OWID that meets those conditions, then I will decide on another source myself.

There is a corresponding market for Harris:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-harris-is-elected-president-will)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (8 traders, as of Jul 3, 2025).