If Labour wins the 2024 UK general election, what will average GDP/capita (PPP) growth over the next four years be?

Question

Resolves according to the World Bank. Average will be taken as [(GDP per Capita PPP in 2028)/(GDP per Capita PPP in 2024)]^(1/4).

Corresponding market for a Conservative victory:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-conservatives-win-the-next-elect)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 0.6% - 0.9%, followed by 0.9% - 1.2% and 1.2% - 1.5% are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).