Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?

Question

This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.

If the party is banned and dissolved or if it dissolves itself or if it breaks up to become unrecognizable, this resolves NO

Related market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/will-the-afd-assume-governmental-re)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 94% chance (30 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).