If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?

Question

War as defined by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program is "A state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year"

This will resolve YES for any war in which China and the USA are directly and kinetically involved on opposing sides.

"Wins in 2024" refers to the 2024 presidential election. If Trump loses, this market will be refunded.

Sister market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/if-joe-biden-wins-in-2024-will-a-wa)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (59 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).