Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?

Question

Will empirical evidence arise through experiments definitively determining if gravity is fundamentally quantum? Or will evidence prove that gravity cannot be quantized into Graviton-like particles? Multiple experiments have been proposed, and some are currently underway which may answer this fundamental question. Market resolves to YES if definitive proof arises as to the nature of gravity by the end of 2030, and otherwise resolves to NO.

A related market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Supermaxman/is-gravity-fundamentally-quantum)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (50 traders, as of Apr 30, 2026).