In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Question

Copy of the linked market but with 100x the scale (10% of Americans rather than 0.1%)

Also this market has a clarification: this CAN close early if the criteria is met earlier.

Otherwise we will use the same data sources as the linked market.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 25% chance (20 traders, as of Dec 23, 2025).