When does Patrick Mahomes next take an NFL snap?

Question

Resolution criteria

Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending torn ACL in his left knee in the closing minutes of Sunday's 16-13 loss to the Chargers on December 14, 2025. The market resolves based on when Mahomes takes his next NFL snap:

Preseason NFL Season 2025/26: Any snap during preseason games before the regular season begins (Preseason is generally August 2026)

Week 1 NFL Season 2025/26: Any snap during Week 1 of the 2025-26 regular season (2nd Week of September)

Week 2-18 NFL Season 2025/26: Any snap during Weeks 2-18 of the 2025-26 regular season

NFL Season 2026/27 or later: Any snap in the 2026-27 season or beyond, including preseason

Never: Mahomes retires for any reason and never takes another NFL snap, preseason, regular season or playoff.

Resolution will be determined by official NFL game records and box scores available at NFL.com or ESPN.com.

Background

Mahomes is expected to have surgery in the coming days and will miss the team's offseason program, with his availability for the start of next season in question. Further specifics on his recovery or a timeline for his return are not yet known. Mahomes, 30, had managed to stay free of long-term injuries during his NFL career, with his longest previous absence being two games in 2019 after dislocating his right kneecap.

Considerations

ACL recovery timelines typically range from 9-12 months for NFL quarterbacks. The exact recovery timeline and return date will depend on surgical outcomes and rehabilitation progress, which remain uncertain. If Mahomes experiences complications or setbacks during recovery, his return could be delayed beyond the 2025-26 season.

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves based on when Patrick Mahomes takes his next NFL snap following his December 14, 2025 ACL injury. Resolution will be determined by official NFL game records and box scores available at NFL.com or ESPN.com.

Background

Mahomes suffered a season-ending torn ACL in his left knee during the final moments of Kansas City's 16-13 loss to the Chargers on December 14, 2025. He is expected to undergo surgery and will miss the team's offseason program. Prior to this injury, Mahomes had avoided significant long-term injuries throughout his NFL career, with his longest previous absence being two games in 2019 following a right knee dislocation.

Considerations

ACL recovery for NFL quarterbacks typically requires 9-12 months. The exact timeline depends on surgical outcomes and rehabilitation progress, both of which remain uncertain. Complications or setbacks during recovery could delay his return beyond the 2025-26 season.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Week 2-18 or Playoffs NFL Season 2025/26, followed by Week 1 NFL Season 2025/26 and Preseason NFL Season 2025/26 are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Mar 26, 2026).