A (inversed) time-sensitive copy of this market:

This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.

Why not just use the percentage that day from the original market (since this could just be seen as an arb)?

 It creates urgency/a deadline for an actual prediction, its possible bettors are just trying to ride waves for profit, while also potentially drawing early interest/bettors to the topic that might have waited to bet until later.

 It will be easier for me to compile later to reference the markets.

The market will close on 1/14 so it won't be clogging anything up market listings with redundancy for long.

 It might actually be interesting to see if the markets are Arb'd on 1/14.

Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.

Matt predicts 70% (30%) for this question

https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions