What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Question

There are a lot of UFO markets, but this is the first with mutually exclusive choices and no arbitrarily-selected timetable to try to explain DoD whistleblower David Grusch's claims.

Intelligence officer David Grusch stated on July 26, 2023 in a hearing under oath that the US government possessed craft of non-human origin.  He claimed that there is an ongoing government conspiracy to cover up research on these objects that is misappropriating taxpayer funds.  The claims led Chuck Schumer to add over 50 pages of text in the National Defense Authorization Act asserting perhaps the most sweeping use of eminient domain in US history.  The bill, which was passed by the Senate, mandates, among other things, contractors turn over these craft and create a scientific committee to evaluate evidence of non-human intelligence.

To illustrate how strange and improbable any outcome to the situation is, I created a market that shows there are only four ways that Grusch's claims can resolve.  It is intended that the market MUST resolve to one of these four choices with a lower number overriding a higher number; if I have the wrong wording or a logic error, please correct me in a comment.

The market resolves to Non-human intelligence if non-human intelligence exists in any form, and that intelligence has influenced any person, animal, or event on Earth at any time before July 26, 2023.  A single sighting or even "ESP feeling" caused by the NHI would be sufficient.  NHI is defined as a phenomenon not created by humans born before July 26, 2023 that can achieve goals with at least the capability of GPT-4.  #2, #3, or #4's truth are not relevant.

The market resolves to Advanced human technology if UFOs are the result of wildly advanced technology created by humans who were born before July 26, 2023 and which has been kept secret from the public for 85 years.  It requires #1 to be false and #3 and #4 are not relevant.

The market resolves to Massive fraud if contractors and/or officials have been creating fake UFO videos and spreading misinformation for 85 years as a method to discredit investigations and siphon taxpayer dollars for unauthorized or nonexistent work.  It requires #1 and #2 to be false and #4 is not relevant.

The market resolves to Multiple counts of perjury if Grusch and/or the 40 witnesses that reported to him are lying and the Intelligence Community Inspector General's conclusion that the claims were "credible and urgent" was not true, because #1, #2, and #3 are all false.  If, however, they are lying to distract from fraud or human weapons, #4 is not the resolution.  There may never be actual indictments for this resolution; other proof (such as messages indicating the witnesses were planning a publicity stunt) would suffice.

The market will remain open until the scientific community widely accepts one of the choices beyond a reasonable doubt, using the legal definition of the term.  A "reasonable doubt" does not imply that ALL doubt must be eliminated in the lower numbered options, just that it would be unreasonable for a person to conclude a lower number is true after enough evidence comes to light.

It is intended that this market coalesce to the true probabilities of each of these options without the odds being artificially lowered by time.  There are many other great markets for those who want an earlier end date with a lower standard of proof.

Gemini, which updates training date nightly (or whatever the frontier model is at the time) will be used to resolve the market if there is disagreement.  It will resolve N/A if I made a mistake in making the choices mutually exclusive and I cannot correct the text without being unfair to people who have previously bet.

RELATED MARKET:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SteveSokolowski/when-will-the-resolution-of-david-g)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Massive fraud, followed by Multiple counts of perjury and Advanced human technology are most likely. See the market for live updates (129 traders, as of Nov 14, 2026).