There are a lot of UFO markets, but this is the first with

and no arbitrarily-selected timetable to try to explain DoD whistleblower David Grusch's claims.

Intelligence officer David Grusch stated on July 26, 2023 in a hearing under oath that the US government possessed craft of non-human origin.  He claimed that there is an ongoing government conspiracy to cover up research on these objects that is misappropriating taxpayer funds.  The claims led Chuck Schumer to add over 50 pages of text in the National Defense Authorization Act asserting perhaps the most sweeping use of eminient domain in US history.  The bill, which was passed by the Senate, mandates, among other things, contractors turn over these craft and create a scientific committee to evaluate evidence of non-human intelligence.

 any outcome to the situation is, I created a market that shows there are only four ways that Grusch's claims can resolve.  It is intended that the market MUST resolve to one of these four choices with a lower number overriding a higher number; if I have the wrong wording or a logic error, please correct me in a comment.

The market will remain open until the scientific community widely accepts one of the choices 

, using the legal definition of the term.  A "reasonable doubt" does not imply that ALL doubt must be eliminated in the lower numbered options, just that it would be unreasonable for a person to conclude a lower number is true after enough evidence comes to light.

It is intended that this market coalesce to the true probabilities of each of these options without the odds being artificially lowered by time.  There are many other great markets for those who want an earlier end date with a lower standard of proof.

Gemini, which updates training date nightly (or whatever the frontier model is at the time) will be used to resolve the market if there is disagreement.  It will resolve N/A if I made a mistake in making the choices mutually exclusive and I cannot correct the text without being unfair to people who have previously bet.