Will the world reach peak oil production before 2030?

Question

Will peak annual oil production be known to have occured within the year 2029 or earlier?

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2030 and 2031 from a peak in or before the year 2029, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached before January 1st, 2030.

Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2029 levels in the years 2030 or 2031.

World Annual Oil Production 1990-2022

[image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-ae52e67046b9)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-84db8de9deea)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 74% chance (41 traders, as of Jul 2, 2026).