When will Apple release a Vision base model?

Question

Resolves to the year when Apple releases (makes available for purchase to the public) the Apple Vision headset alongside the Apple Vision Pro. The criteria for resolution are Apple having two virtual reality headsets which use VisionOS available for purchase simultaneously, which are differentiated from each other in at least both product name and retail price. Therefore, changes in name do not affect the market. If the criteria are not met by 2031, the market resolves to never if there is no announcement or sources which suggest any chance it will occur by 2033.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2026, followed by 2027 and 2030 or later are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).