Is Cuba 'next'?

Question

Resolves YES if Cuba is the next target of American military action conducted for the purpose of decapitation and regime change. Resolves NO if any other country is the next target or if the American government does not target any other countries with such action under the current administration.

Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ongoing military action against Iran (e.g., strikes on Khamenei's location) counts as a single continuous engagement, not a new one. For any future action against Iran to count as a new "next" target, the US would need to significantly draw back and repair relations with Iran first.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 58% chance (23 traders, as of Jun 10, 2026).