I just resolved a market based on the same question and added my explanation below. I wonder what other users on Manifold think.

We cannot know for certain, but I lean towards that Sam was prioritizing AI commercialization over safety, while Ilya wanted to slow down development and place a greater emphasis on safety.

I think the board (specifically Ilya) believed that Sam was moving too quickly to commercialize AI models without ensuring safety came first. This concern seemed to be shared by others, including the founders of Anthropic who left OpenAI under similar circumstances. There were also disagreements among leadership over how to manage the company. For instance, see what transpired with Wilmer below.

This leads me to conclude that there was a significant divide within OpenAI regarding the pace of development and insufficient resources dedicated to ensuring AI system safety. Ilya convinced the board he believed the company should move more cautiously and allocate resources differently. The board made their decision.

Excerpts from articles that influences my opinion:

to take less risk with agi = the board wanted to take less risk and/or move slower than Sam so they fired him

to take more risk with agi = the board wanted to take more risk and/or move faster than Sam, so they fired him