This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following events have occurred on or before January 20, 2029:

1. Executive Order Alters Judicial Structure

An executive order is issued that explicitly restructures or diminishes the constitutional role, jurisdiction, or appointment process of the federal judiciary.

2. Legislative Act Undermines Judicial Independence

Congress enacts a law that materially changes the federal judiciary’s jurisdiction, lifetime tenure provisions, or removes established Article III protections in a way that contravenes the constitutional framework.

3. Forced Removal of Judges Outside Impeachment

Any serving federal judge is removed, forced to resign, or otherwise deprived of their appointment through means other than the constitutionally prescribed impeachment process.