What ARK's 2030 predictions about energy storage will turn true?

Question

ARK Invest just published a white paper called Platforms Of Innovation. The white paper contains many opportunities to bet on the economic impact of converging technologies.

Source

This market allows to speculate on the predictions contained in the white paper with a focus on energy storage.

ARK defines Energy Storage as an "Innovation Platform", along with other four. Two technologies mainly benefit from this innovation platform:

Autonomous Mobility (basically robotaxis)

Advanced Battery Tech (electric batteries

[image]They made various predictions regarding this innovation platform. I picked a few that could be potentially assessed in 2030:

Autonomous robotaxis have transformed global transport, as point-to-point transportation is available in nearly every country at an average price of ~$.50 per mile. ==> Resolved if robotaxis will be available in New York, Shanghai, San Paolo, London and Laos for an average of around or less than $0.5/miles adapted for inflation

Robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles ==> self explanatory

The number of autonomous vehicles facilitating this travel is ~100 million ==> self explanatory (at least ≈100m)

EVs sold annually is ~74 million

Supplying the EV OEMs, battery manufacturers generate revenue of $300 billion per year. Stationary energy storage requires a volume of batteries roughly equivalent to that consumed by EVs,  generating another $300 billion in revenue. ==> Battery sales amount to a total of $600b

For all the options above, I'll consider them true if the figures in 2030 overcome ARK's expectations or miss them by max 10%.

[image]Let me know if you would like to add other bets or if you think the options should be changed to better reflect the spirit of the white paper. I may change them accordingly.

Other markets on ARK's predictions:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SimoneRomeo/ark-predictions-what-will-global-gd)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles, followed by 2030 Sales of batteries ≥ 600b and There will be around 100m robotaxis are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Mar 23, 2024).