Will any Republican candidate deny the result of the Iowa Republican presidential Caucus?

Question

The Iowa Caucus to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 Presidential election takes place today.

Once the results become clear, will any of the following candidates claim that the results were fraudulent?

Donald Trump

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Asa Hutchinson

The caucus process is complicated, but the Republican party puts out a popular vote total which looks something like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses

If any candidate claims that the vote totals are fake/fraudulent, this market resolves to YES. This includes a candidate who claims that they got more votes than their opponents when the results indicate that they did not, but it also includes a candidate saying that the position was right but that the votes are inaccurate (eg. "the fake results say that I won by 20% but I actually won by 40%").

What doesn't count?

Procedural complaints such as saying that the process was unfair but that the vote totals are still accurate (eg. a candidate saying that they would have won if there had been a delay for the weather conditions)

Complaining that their opponents won votes by making false claims, threats, etc. but not denying that they really did get those votes

Anything to do with the process/delegates (eg. agreeing that the vote totals are accurate but claiming that they will get more delegates than the media is reporting)

The claim must be made by the end of the day (Midnight EST) on Sunday. If there is no evidence of any such claims by Monday, I will resolve the market to NO.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 22, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.