On Friday 8th March, Irish voters are being asked to vote on the proposed 39th and 40th amendments to the Irish constitution.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Irish_constitutional_referendums

These amendments are widely considered to be progressive rather than conservative.

The bills setting up this referendum have been passed by the Dail and Seanad (the equivalent to the lower and upper houses) and the Taoiseach supports them meaning that the referendum is the final step in passing the amendments other than some formalities.

Predictors think that both amendments have a very high chance of passing:

Will both amendments pass by more than 10%?

The market will resolve to YES if more than 55% of voters vote yes on both amendments. It will resolve to NO if either amendment gets less than 55% approval.