Press Freedom: will SCOTUS make it easier for politicians to sue media for defamation?

Question

New York Times Co. v. Sullivan (1964) is a landmark Supreme Court case that established the "actual malice" standard, which requires that public officials prove a defamatory statement was made with knowledge of its falsity or reckless disregard for the truth to win a libel case. This decision strengthened First Amendment protections for freedom of the press.

Background: https://www.vox.com/scotus/365418/supreme-court-first-amendment-donald-trump-thomas-alito-gorsuch

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, one member of the Court’s pro-free speech majority, is now 70. Chief Justice John Roberts, another member of that majority, will turn 70 shortly after the next president is inaugurated. And there’s always some risk that any justice could experience a catastrophic health event that forces them off the Court.

At the Court’s right flank stand two justices, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, who have openly called for New York Times v. Sullivan (1964), the fount of press freedom in the United States, to be overruled. Trump also called for Sullivan to be overruled in a 2022 court filing.

Meanwhile, Justice Samuel Alito, in a pair of opinions joined by Thomas and Gorsuch, spent the last two years unsuccessfully fighting in favor of laws that seem designed to challenge the modern understanding of free speech.

I do not bet in any of my markets with subjective resolution criteria, so I don't bet in this one.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Yes, if a MAGA Republican is elected in 2024 is most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Jun 25, 2026).