Will the IRS free file alternative (Direct File) be publicly available for filing 2025 federal taxes?

Question

YES iff the IRS releases tax preparation software that allows you to prepare your taxes and submit them, in a way that is significantly easier than using the forms (should be a reasonable competitor to tax preparation software). The software should be available for use and free for at least 10% of American taxpayers. Those 10% should theoretically be able to use it as their primary way of filing federal tax. State taxes are out of scope. Has to be made by the IRS or their contractors

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (17 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).