Subjective resolution, judged by me, don't bet if that's not your cup of tea. I will not bet on this market.

For the purpose of this market, a loss is defined as at least one judge concluding that the natural origin is correct. Note that this is different than the definition in the linked market and also includes a split decision. I chose this definition because I think it includes all the scenarios which would challenge Sa'ar's extreme confidence. This market will N/A if both judges vote for lab leak or stay undecided.

I'll have to judge by the actual response, but I expect Saar to congradulate Peter or at least write a nice rather than defensive post concluding the debate, and I also expect him to update the website and the tone he uses to reflect the fact that he's lost the debate.

It's fine if he doesn't do everything I expect, I'm mostly just looking for sincere acceptance, not resorting to trying to pretend the debate didn't exist or blaming the judges of not underatanding Bayesian inference or whatever.