Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Question

The last election was in 2005. Future elections have been "postponed indefinitely" by current president Mahmoud Abbas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Palestinian_presidential_election

Must be recognized internationally as a valid and fair election for the leadership of the State of Palestine (particularly by the UN and leaders of western nations).

Doesn't necessarily need to be called a "presidential election".
Disqualifying some potential candidates (Like Hamas) is ok.

I will not be betting on this market.

This market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question if there is ambiguity.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (78 traders, as of May 17, 2026).