Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Kraken? (Before 2030)

Question

YES if $1,000,000 USD worth of customer/investor funds were stolen, lost, or inaccessible, as a result of fraud commited by Kraken or its employees.  NO in 2030-Jan if this doesn't happen.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (4 traders, as of Feb 21, 2024).