Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?

Question

-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

-"an": must be a single event (we are not combining unrelated smaller disasters).

-"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.

-"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.  Unless the AI was directly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.

-"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.

-"at least 10,000": if the disaster causes ongoing deaths (such as by poisoning the atmosphere) then we will include the ongoing deaths, with the best available estimate.

-"Before 2029": resolves No in 2029-Jan if the above hasn't happened, otherwise resolves Yes whenever there is a consensus that it happened.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (9 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).