Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2029?

Question

-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

-"an": must be a single event (we are not combining unrelated smaller disasters).

-"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.

-"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement. Unless the AI was directly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.

-"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.

-"at least 1,000,000,000": if the disaster causes ongoing deaths (such as by poisoning the atmosphere) then we will include the ongoing deaths, with the best available estimate.

-"Before 2029": resolves No in 2029-Jan if the above hasn't happened, otherwise resolves Yes whenever there is a consensus that it happened.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1-270615f49415)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1-6ad27639b65b)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1-9bfa31c52c0f)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1-16699bd37e14)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1-afd5d78a5e42)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-accident-kill-at-least-1-b0aef3f5f5ec)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (12 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).