Will a betting cabal be created this year?

Question

This market resolves YES if it becomes public knowledge that at least 3 accounts were collaborating to create low-quality markets, and then always bet on the markets of the other 2 (in order to collect those sweet M$10 rewards). The 3 accounts don't need to be controlled by distinct meatbags. It is necessary that the markets be markedly lower quality than normal. In other words, a group of friends who just enjoy betting on each others' markets for fun do not count.

Note that this scheme is profitable with only 2 accounts, but this market won't resolve YES unless there are 3 or more consistently taking part.

Otherwise, this market resolves NO at the end of the year.

If Manifold modifies the M$10 reward to be immune to this scheme, I'll wait until the end of the year to resolve NO, just in case it gets changed back.

For some context, see the discussion on https://manifold.markets/Boklam/if-i-find-some-unfair-ie-unintended.

(As the resolution is somewhat subjective, I will not be betting in this market.)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 16, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.