Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Question

This resolves to YES if Anthropic no longer suffers from the negative effects of being classified as a "supply chain risk" by EOY 2026, either because the administration backtracked on the classification, or Anthropic won a preliminary injunction staying the classification, or Anthropic won a final lawsuit removing the classification. This market will resolve as soon as one of these events occurs, which means that if Anthropic gets a preliminary injunction removing the classification, the market resolves YES even before the final outcome of the lawsuit is known.

If one of these outcomes removes some of the effects of the classification but not others, I will resolve this yes if it seems to subjectively remove more than half of the threat to Anthropic's revenues (ie access to business partners and customers). The customers and partners do not have to actually resume paying Anthropic those revenues as long as the impediments to them doing so have been legally removed. In cases where I am uncertain, I may ask an AI its opinion.

It's not entirely clear what Pete Hegseth thinks the "supply chain risk" designation entails. Once he clearly states what he means by it in a way that seems informed by legal counsel and not just spur-of-the-moment, the "more than half" rule applies to whatever his original designation was, even if he changes his mind later. If he never states a clear description of what he means before the supply chain risk designation is very substantially reduced or cancelled, this will resolve to YES.

Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if Anthropic has not received a supply chain risk designation by EOY 2026.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Mar 27, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.