[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will a tropical cyclone make landfall in the continental US in October 2023?

Question

Background

On average, October sees the formation of 2.75 named storms in the Atlantic basin. The Colorado State University Forecast predicts a close-to-average tropical cyclone activity in the region, as the unfavorable influence from El Niño is counteracted by record warm sea temperatures.

As of October 9, a tropical disturbance has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, poised to move towards the Gulf States over the next days.

[image][image]Will 93L, or any other tropical disturbances, strengthen into a named tropical cyclone and make landfall in the continental US within October?

Note: As of Oct 11, 93L has merged with a stationary front and is no longer an active tropical system.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if a named tropical cyclone (tropical storm strength or above at the point of landfall according to NHC) makes landfall in any part of the continental US within October 2023, while retaining tropical characteristics. The precise landfall must occur before the end of October in the local timezone.

Resolves NO if no such named tropical cyclone makes landfall in the continental US, or if said tropical cyclones have degenerated below tropical storm strength, or become post-tropical or extratropical before landfall.

Will resolve based on National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories. If the landfall occurs at a marginal time, additional tools such as the NHC Display and Diagnostic System and interpolation will be used to obtain a relatively precise time whereby the center moves inland.

Whether a storm has undergone extratropical transition is also to be defined by the NHC. In other words, all landfalls after the first advisory formally labelling the cyclone as a post-tropical storm will not be deemed sufficient to satisfy the condition for YES. An example of formal labelling can be found below. A mere mention of the beginning of extratropical transition in advisory discussions is not sufficient.

[image]I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 2, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.