Measuring AI ability to complete long tasks

The analysis suggests that the 50%-task-completion time horizon for the State of the Art AI agent is doubling every 7 months:

Figure 1 from the METR paper illustrates the historical exponential growth trend and the ~7 month doubling time.

This market resolves based on published data from METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research) or a successor organization explicitly continuing this line of research using a demonstrably equivalent methodology.

 doubling of the SotA – reaching a horizon of at least 118 minutes (H1) – will occur 

 than this historical average. Specifically, will the time elapsed between the effective date of the previous SotA (T0) and the date the new SotA horizon (H1) is achieved (T1) be less than 212 days (i.e. by 24th September 2025).

The market will close on the 24th of October 2025 to provide 30 days for METR (or another org) to run the METR analysis. It will close earlier if METR (or another org using equivalent methodology) confirm that the 118 minute 50%-task-completion time horizon is achieved before this date.