Will the Kuril islands market get at least 200 traders if it does not receive Ṁ5,000 in subsidies?

Question

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Sailfish/will-japan-regain-control-over-some)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (9 traders, as of Nov 3, 2023).