Will GPT-5 be publicly released before Andrej Karpathy rejoins OpenAI a second time?

Question

This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as "GPT-5" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Andrej Karpathy returns at OpenAI, post his February 2024 departure.

A "major successor" is defined as a significantly improved model over GPT-4, excluding minor updates, and single domain specialists (e.g., a programming or math product that outperforms GPT-4 in those domains but not significantly otherwise). It also excludes optimized models of GPT-4 with similar quality performance but improved speed or cost.

"Publicly available" means accessible in any commercial manner, including free access, subscription models, external developer APIs, or Bing integration, pending official confirmation.

Examples considered equivalent of GPT-5:

GPT-5: Yes

Chat 5: Yes

GPT-4.5: No

GPT-4.5-Turbo: No

Roboto: Yes (if major release and rebrand); NO (if minor update or single domain).

Sora: No

Karpathy's return includes employment, board positions, or contracting roles, effective from his start date.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Aug 8, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.