By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?

Question

An orbit around earth is defined as having a perigee above 100 km. All past flights have targeted perigees with negative values (inside the surface of the earth). So when do you think Starship will have a perigee above 100km?

This obviously assumes Starship is in one piece and flying nominally when it reaches this orbit. If a piece of debris once belonging to Starship happens to reach orbit it will not count (resolve NO).

Starship must actually fly to orbit if it is targeted so if orbit is not reached in flight this market resolves NO. Additionally, this is a prediction market, if a flight is targeting orbit the market will close just before launch. I feel it is in the spirit of a prediction market to make sure no one profits off of knowing the resolution while it is open. I will run the market with this in mind.

I will add more flights as needed. I’ll try to keep at least 5 open at a time given the  results of these flights seem sufficiently uncertain. In hindsight this seems rather  unlikely but you never know.

Resolution Criteria may vary but a “nominal orbital insertion” call or something equivalent during a live stream of an attempted orbital flight would be enough. If the meeting of resolution criteria is unclear it may take until a mishap investigation is released 😢.

Thanks all and good luck!

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 13 and 12 are most likely. See the market for live updates (62 traders, as of Apr 7, 2026).