The market resolves, when Firaxis or another entity that's officially related to the Civilization-IP announces a release date for Civilization VII for the first time in official communication, or if the year ends. It does not matter, if the release date is later pushed back. 

A release date is defined as at least month and year. "This year" or "this fall" for example do not constitute a date. "March 2nd 2024" or "August 2024" do.

The multiple choice options are in regards to the date of the announcement, not the release date itself.