Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030

Question

This market will resolve yes if it is reported (in a reputable fashion) by Wikipedia that 10 or more peeople are injured/killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece after the start date of this market.  I will likely refer to this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute, however any Wikipedia page counts (I'm more or less intending to use it as a news aggregator in this case).  If multiple reputable sources for >10 people being injured/killed are posted in the comments, I am likely to count that as well.

I will verify the source shown on Wikipedia, and will not resolve this market to yes if it seems like the source is false.  If the reputability of the source becomes a contentious point, I will attempt to compensate an (uninvested) Admin to resolve this market.

I will not bet in this market.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/RobertCousineau/will-1-or-more-person-be-injured-or)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/RobertCousineau/will-10-or-more-people-be-injured-o)(https://manifold.markets/embed/RobertCousineau/will-100-or-more-people-be-injured)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 28% chance (14 traders, as of May 29, 2026).