Will we get AGI before 2030?

Question

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030

MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)

This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI?‌ as its baseline. If that resolves NO for this market's year (and every year earlier), this also resolves NO. If it resolves YES, we dig into the nitty gritty.

Please see THIS COMMENT from the 2026 market for more guidance about what a YES resolution might look like.

Here are markets with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Related markets:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035

Other questions for 2030:

@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4

@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f

@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9

@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594

Solar system exploration questions:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58

Other points of reference for AGI:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (305 traders, as of May 12, 2026).