Will we get ASI before 2030?

Question

Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities. ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities. It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030

Markets with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2036

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@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

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@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (98 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).