Nash Pit Ep 2 : What choice will Contestant A (@realTomBayes) make?

Question

This market resolves YES to the market answer that represents the final game choice of Share/Steal/Forfeit that Contestant A will make during Nash Pit Episode 2. All other market answers resolve NO. All resolve N/A if the game show does not begin. Anybody is allowed to trade on these markets.

Contestant A:

@/Quroe/who-will-be-contestant-a-in-nash-pi

It's a Twist! @realTomBayes has been substituted for @ryanmccomb!

The Twist:

[To be announced...]

The Twist’s SHA256 Hash:

1b59d9d6ebd443628e815baf6887b1b880b62b41e66e2e8a3d18a49c6e27c0f0

Contestant B's choice market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Quroe/nash-pit-manifest-2026-what-choice-SP2gycg5AZ)The pot:

@/Quroe/quroes-mana-vault

Nash Pit Dashboard:

Nash Pit Episode 2

Welcome to Nash Pit, the game show that exists because market forces demand it does.

This asymmetric game consists of 3 general parties:

· Host: Runs the game show. Is @Quroe.

· Contestants: Participants who make the final choice in the outcome.

· The Public: Anybody else not in the above categories.

2 Contestants and the Host will each ante at least 1k mana into a designated bounty market as a communal pot. This results in a pot of at least 3k mana. Anybody may add more to the pot at any time before the game’s conclusion.

Each Contestant will choose and reveal the choice of Share, Steal, or Forfeit simultaneously at the end of the game during The Big Reveal. The Contestants and Host will win a share of the pot following this payout matrix.

[image]About halfway through the game, a Twist will be revealed that alters either the game rules or the general dynamics of the game. The Host is cognizant of the Twist and can act/trade on this information if they choose to before the Twist’s public reveal, which is explained below. The Host may reveal what the Twist is to anybody, publicly or privately, before The Twist’s Reveal. The Twist is locked in at OR before the beginning of the game and cannot be changed from then onward. The Twist can change, modify, or add anything to this market page and game show that doesn’t reduce the base payout or size of the pot. Nothing else is sacred.

The game is split into several phases.

· Contestant Selection Phase: Contestants are selected. If no valid Contestant from their respective markets can be selected, then the Host will ask for a volunteer from the crowd to participate.

· First Negotiation Phase: The game show begins now. Participants try to influence the final choices the Contestants make.

· The Twist's Reveal: Trading on Contestant choice markets halts. The Twist is then revealed. Its one-time or continuous effects become active, then trading resumes.

· Second Negotiation Phase: It's the same as the first one, except now the Twist is publicly known and active/happened.

· The Big Reveal: Contestants meet back at the stage and secretly make their game choice. The Contestants lock in their choices, and then they simultaneously reveal their choices to everybody at the Host’s direction. Any Contestant that fails to make a choice within a reasonable amount of time or fails to appear for The Big Reveal is assumed to have Forfeited.

Any legal and Community Guidelines compliant deal can be made between anybody, anywhere, at any time -- with the Public, with the Contestants, even with the Host! However, these deals should generally be considered unenforceable by the game rules. Players may lie or deceive to manipulate the markets. Deals are generally not compelled to be upheld. Make deals at your own risk.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Share, followed by Steal and Forfeit are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).