Will Trump escape all legal consequences for 6-1-21 AND will Bolsanaro face legal consequences for 8-1-23?

Question

Will former US president Donald Trump escape all (non-civil) legal consequences for the events of January 6th 2021 at the US capital AND will former Brazilian president Jair Bolsanaro face (non-civil) legal consequences for the events of January 8th 2023 at the Brazilian capital?

Wikipedia articles for each of the two events:

US: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack

Brazil: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack

Just sticking to the most basic facts:

US: Following his loss of the 2020 presidential election, Trump led a campaign to challenge the results with the hope of overturning them. After a speech to his supporters at the capital on January 6th 2021, many of those supporters proceeded to engage in a riot in and around the capital building. There is much debate both politically and legally if these actions are sufficient for Trump to be liable for inciting a riot or engaging in an insurrection. Due to this, there are legal challenges to his eligibility to run for office.

Brazil: Following his loss of the 2022 general election and the inauguration of Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, a mob invaded several federal buildings at the capital. The explicitly stated purpose from many of the participants was to violently and forcefully disrupt the democratic transition of power, or at least to incite military leaders to do so. Now, Bolsanaro and many of his allies have been accused by Brazilian authorities for playing a pivotal role in this attack and even for planning a coup d'état. The authorities are investigating and Bolsanaro has surrendered his passport to authorities.

It's hard not to see the similarities between the two former leaders and the events after their respective election defeats.

However, recent developments seem to suggest that although they are similar on their surface, Trump may face no serious consequences but Bolsanaro may.

Recent developments:

US: https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-insurrection-trump-2024-election-397a481d2886b64bba06b24ff3d03f37

Brazil: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/world/americas/brazil-police-raid-bolsonaro-attempted-coup-investigation.html

For the purposes of this market I define "non-civil" legal consequences as any negative legal action against the accused that is not civil damages. For example,

These count:

The accused is barred from running for or holding office.

The accused is sentenced to house arrest, jail time, probation, or similar.

The accused is ordered to pay punitive fines (not compensatory though)

The accused is ordered by a criminal court to issue some sort of apology

These don't count:

The accused is ordered to pay some victim for damages suffered. For example, if someone who was injured during the events sues for physical and mental damages and wins.

This market resolves YES if:

Former US President Donald J Trump never faces any such non-civil legal consequences as described above. This could include dying before such consequences are determined. A ruling (and sentencing in the case of criminal punishment) that isn't carried out before death would count, but one that is later overturned before it is carried out would not.

AND

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsanaro faces some non-civil legal consequences as described above. Again, a ruling/sentencing that is reached but not carried out before death/asylum/etc would count if it was not legally overturned.

This market resolves NO otherwise.

I don't see any way this market would resolve N/A or to a percentage.

Market close will be extended until the outcome is nearly certain (all legal avenues have expired) or completely certain (death of accused).

I will not trade in this market.

As always, feel free to discuss or ask questions about my resolution criteria.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 74% chance (10 traders, as of Dec 12, 2024).