Will former US president Donald Trump escape all (non-civil) legal consequences for the events of January 6th 2021 at the US capital AND will former Brazilian president Jair Bolsanaro face (non-civil) legal consequences for the events of January 8th 2023 at the Brazilian capital?

Wikipedia articles for each of the two events:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack

US: Following his loss of the 2020 presidential election, Trump led a campaign to challenge the results with the hope of overturning them. After a speech to his supporters at the capital on January 6th 2021, many of those supporters proceeded to engage in a riot in and around the capital building. There is much debate both politically and legally if these actions are sufficient for Trump to be liable for inciting a riot or engaging in an insurrection. Due to this, there are legal challenges to his eligibility to run for office.

Brazil: Following his loss of the 2022 general election and the inauguration of Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, a mob invaded several federal buildings at the capital. The explicitly stated purpose from many of the participants was to violently and forcefully disrupt the democratic transition of power, or at least to incite military leaders to do so. Now, Bolsanaro and many of his allies have been accused by Brazilian authorities for playing a pivotal role in this attack and even for planning a coup d'état. The authorities are investigating and Bolsanaro has surrendered his passport to authorities.

It's hard not to see the similarities between the two former leaders and the events after their respective election defeats.

However, recent developments seem to suggest that although they are similar on their surface, Trump may face no serious consequences but Bolsanaro may.

https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-insurrection-trump-2024-election-397a481d2886b64bba06b24ff3d03f37

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/world/americas/brazil-police-raid-bolsonaro-attempted-coup-investigation.html

For the purposes of this market I define "non-civil" legal consequences as any negative legal action against the accused that is not civil damages. For example,

I don't see any way this market would resolve N/A or to a percentage.

Market close will be extended until the outcome is nearly certain (all legal avenues have expired) or completely certain (death of accused).

As always, feel free to discuss or ask questions about my resolution criteria.