Will Python remain a leading language until 2030 with or without the GIL?

Question

This is the longest of 3 markets. The other two close in 2026 and 2028.

2026:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Pykess/will-python-remain-a-leading-langua-b15a3b4d165b)2028:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Pykess/will-python-remain-a-leading-langua-16c2dfa54d34)GIL = Global Interpreter Lock

By "Python removes the GIL" I mean that the official stable CPython interpreter natively ships with at least an option to disable the GIL. Build flags or anything that requires users to compile CPython themselves do not count. For example I will count things such as:

The GIL is removed completely with no ability to re-enable it.

Some sort of import or function call like from future import nogil in a script disables the GIL

By "remain a leading language until X" I mean that according to StackOverflow's yearly developer survey (or equivalent if SO stops conducting the survey) Python is at all times in the top 5 languages used by programmers of any skill level. If at any time before X, Python is in 6th place or below, then Python has not remained a leading language even if in the next survey it regains 5th place or above.

The two options in this market are UNLINKED however in any scenario exactly one will resolve N/A. Here are two example outcomes and how I would resolve them:

The GIL remains in Python, and Python does not remain a leading language. The first option "Python removes the GIL; ..." would resolve N/A. The second option "Python keeps the GIL; ..." would resolve NO.

The GIL is removed from Python, and Python remains a leading language. The first option "Python removes the GIL; ..." would resolve YES. The second option "Python keeps the GIL; ..." would resolve N/A.

If there are any questions or disagreements with the above criteria, please leave a comment below.

I do not bet in markets I create.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, If Python removes the GIL; Python remains leading language and If Python keeps the GIL; Python remains leading language are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Mar 10, 2024).