Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Question

Resolution Criteria

The Trump peace plan calls for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to surrender their weapons to an international peacekeeping force, with the second phase explicitly stipulating that Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone.

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that Hamas has verifiably surrendered a substantial majority of its weapons arsenal (including heavy weapons, rockets, and small arms) to an international force or third party, with independent verification of the disarmament. This includes destruction of weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure used for weapons storage or manufacturing.

This market resolves NO if Hamas retains operational control of significant weapons stockpiles, continues active weapons manufacturing, or refuses to participate in verified disarmament by year-end 2026.

Background

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10, 2025. The more contentious second phase of the ceasefire will address Israeli withdrawal, Palestinian disarmament and the formal end to the war, with this second phase intended to begin in January 2026.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal is trying to convince the United States administration to follow the Palestinian group's own "vision" on how to deal with disarmament, with Meshaal saying Hamas aims to "create a situation with guarantees that war does not return between Gaza and the Israeli occupation", which included the group potentially handing over its weapons, though it wants input on the process. However, Meshaal cautioned that surrendering weapons on the ground would be akin to "removing the soul" of the organisation.

Considerations

The agreement is quite vague with no clear indications of timelines or benchmarks, let alone exactly how disarmament will be accomplished. The continued viability of the U.S.-backed ceasefire in Gaza hinges on two crucial next steps: the deployment of an international force in Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas, but countries involved in this key phase of the ceasefire are still debating fundamental details about how to proceed.

Despite the demand that it disarm, Hamas quickly took advantage of the ceasefire to rebuild its military wing by collecting unexploded ordnance and ammunition left in the Gaza Strip after two years of war. Hamas has begun amassing advanced weapons and stockpiling them abroad in hopes of smuggling them into Gaza in the future, with an unsourced report alleging that the terror group had started amassing weapons in recent weeks and stockpiling them in unspecified African states, Yemen, and other countries.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (27 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).