Will new information overturn the resolution to another one of my markets in 2024?

Question

I haven't had to change the resolutions to many of my markets, but when I have, the reason was usually just that I accidentally clicked the wrong button and needed to correct my mistake. After all, if I don't know what the correct resolution is, the solution is usually to wait until I do know it, so I will only resolve a market if I'm very certain of the right answer (this, of course, only applies to markets where the question of what the correct answer is comes from uncertainty about the actual facts, not from subjective opinions or interpretations of the resolution criteria). However, I recently had to re-resolve a market because I found out that information that I based the resolution on, which was reported by multiple reliable sources, was actually false. This is the first time I have had to change the resolution to one of my markets because new information revealed it to be incorrect.

This question resolves YES if, before the end of 2024 (CT), I discover that the resolution to one of my markets was incorrect because the information I had at the time was wrong, and this new information caused me to change the resolution of the market.

Caveats:

I don't have to personally re-resolve the market. If, for example, I am no longer a mod, so I ask another mod to re-resolve it for me, it still counts. Even if another mod re-resolves it unilaterally because they discovered that it was a misresolution, it counts, as long as that mod's resolution stands.

It still counts even if the re-resolution occurs after the end of the year as long as I knew about the information that led to the re-resolution before the end of the year, OR the information that led to the re-resolution was posted in the comments section to the market before the end of the year.

If the market linked above (the one that I had to re-resolve) gets re-resolved again due to new info coming out, it counts for YES.

It doesn't count if I merely un-resolve a market, unless I later re-resolve it to a different resolution than the original one.

It has to be based on new information about the objective facts about what the correct resolution is. If it's an edge case and I re-resolve it because traders convinced me that the way I interpreted the resolution criteria was not how most traders interpreted it, that does not count.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Mar 14, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.