TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.

A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland

Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

The US has spies working in the North Korean government

Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market:

Any option that doesn't follow these criteria will resolve N/A. Options may also resolve N/A if it is not sufficiently clear what would count as the theory being true or not. Otherwise, options will resolve YES if they are proven to be true by 2100 and NO if they are not. "Proven to be true" means that the proof should be widely accepted by experts on the event, and that it is possible for members of the general public to access the information which proves it true (so, a small secluded group having access to proof that a conspiracy theory is true doesn't count if this proof is not widely disseminated). It also means that the option is proven to have been true at the time it was submitted, so, for example, if someone submits "The U.S. government is hiding aliens in Area 51" in 2024, and then the government actually starts hiding aliens in Area 51 in 2050, with proof of this coming out in 2070, it will still resolve NO.

If there is a controversy over whether a certain theory has been proven true or not and I am not around to adjudicate it, mods have permission to use any system they have in place for determining whether controversial markets with inactive/dead creators should resolve to YES or NO (e.g., determining it by a vote among mods). If no general system exists at the time, they have permission to form a panel to determine the resolution.

*To count as a conspiracy theory, all of the following are necessary conditions: