What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?

Question

All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu)Any option that doesn't follow these criteria will resolve N/A. Options may also resolve N/A if it is not sufficiently clear what would count as the theory being true or not. Otherwise, options will resolve YES if they are proven to be true by 2100 and NO if they are not. "Proven to be true" means that the proof should be widely accepted by experts on the event, and that it is possible for members of the general public to access the information which proves it true (so, a small secluded group having access to proof that a conspiracy theory is true doesn't count if this proof is not widely disseminated). It also means that the option is proven to have been true at the time it was submitted, so, for example, if someone submits "The U.S. government is hiding aliens in Area 51" in 2024, and then the government actually starts hiding aliens in Area 51 in 2050, with proof of this coming out in 2070, it will still resolve NO.

If there is a controversy over whether a certain theory has been proven true or not and I am not around to adjudicate it, mods have permission to use any system they have in place for determining whether controversial markets with inactive/dead creators should resolve to YES or NO (e.g., determining it by a vote among mods). If no general system exists at the time, they have permission to form a panel to determine the resolution.

*To count as a conspiracy theory, all of the following are necessary conditions:

The theory is not currently known to be true by most of the world - e.g., if the North Korean government hides some wrongdoing from the North Korean public, but the wrongdoing is known to the public in other countries, then I wouldn't count North Koreans theorizing about the wrongdoing as a conspiracy theory for the purposes of this market.

The theory runs counter to what most mainstream sources and experts currently say. This means that most of these sources that discuss the theory or the events that the theory is about either explicitly say the theory is false, describe events in a way that implies that the theory is false (e.g., endorsing an alternate theory), or consistently refer to the theory as unproven, fringe, a conspiracy theory, or something similar in a way that makes it clear that they don't think the theory is true.

The theory alleges some sort of cover-up. In other words, it's not just saying, "Currently accepted fact X is actually wrong," but also that people know X is wrong and are hiding this fact. So, for example, "I think scientists are mistaken about X because I looked at the experiments and I think the methodology is off," doesn't count as a conspiracy theory, but, "Scientists are lying about X" does.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015), followed by TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government and Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made are most likely. See the market for live updates (36 traders, as of Jan 31, 2026).