If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Question

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if, in any incident before the end of 2026, US active-duty military are publicly on duty in Washington DC, and tasked with maintaining law and order (or controlling protests/riots, etc) as stated by either the administration, a military spokesperson, or members of the units themselves. 
Otherwise resolves No at the end of 2026.

"Active duty" is intended to exclude national guardsmen and army reserves. The deployment must be reported in at least 2 major media outlets: CNN, Fox, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, The Guardian, the AP, or similar. (The reporting must describe this as a step beyond the usual responsibilities of active-duty troops -- I'm not talking about MPs patrolling their normal routes at the Navy Yard.)

I will not trade in this market.

Compare:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterFavaloro/if-biden-wins-will-activeduty-milit)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (24 traders, as of Nov 5, 2026).