Will any company sell $1B of humanoid robots before 2030?

Question

Clarification - humanoid robots.

See similar market on Tesla: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-tesla-sell-1b-of-humanoid-robo

Nov 24, 2:54pm: Will any company sell >$1B of robots before 2030? → Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030?

Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

The revenue threshold of >$1B is measured in 2023 dollars.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 57% chance (36 traders, as of Aug 10, 2026).