Warning! This market may already be doomed, as the threshold picked is higher than human performance. However I don't know for sure, just letting you know before you bet. Here's one that's set at slightly below human performance:

ProPara aims to promote the research in natural language understanding in the context of procedural text. This requires identifying the actions described in the paragraph and tracking state changes happening to the entities involved.

Given this five-sentence procedural paragraph (id 1167 from the training partition):

https://leaderboard.allenai.org/propara/submissions/public

We would need to see 1.3*0.731 or greater by the end of the year for this to resolve YES, otherwise NO.

Please see markets embedded for how I will format this description in the future to try to make it more clear and provide more information.