Pretend you are creating a new prediction markets platform of some type that you are responsible for. Based upon your interaction with Manifold and other similar platforms, which of the above options would you pick?

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/prediction-markets-poll-what-is-the

 Alternate accounts can potentially disrupt the fairness and integrity of prediction markets. In your opinion, if you had to pick one reason, what is the main issue caused by "alts" on any prediction markets platform, if at all?

Pretend you are creating a new prediction markets platform of some type that you are responsible for. If you had to pick one direction, what do you think would be the best way to combat the, "Alts," problem (and why, if you are so inclined to answer)? You can comment other and offer your own solution which may be a combination of the above or a new solution. You may choose to comment why you picked the solution you did or why you don't like other particular solutions.

The Alts Problem:

Generally, creating multiple accounts in order to serve some other larger strategic goal, e.g. funneling money into a central account, increase one's chance of winnings, whether through the use of alt accounts, with or without an API, using a wide definition.

Why Alts Are Considered a Problem At Manifold

In short, it seems that Manifold (and likely any other platform) would rather spend resources on software, features and user growth than security. This is a common pattern across many companies and software offerings.

E.g., re: the Whales vs. Minnows market:

[image]Example Past Alts Problem:

AmmonLam

[image]From a Search on Discord / Manifold:

@BTE used alts at one point, admited it and was fined for it, has been able to maintain a Trustworthy-Ish badge.

User @PC evidently used a ton of alts  at one point and was banned.

There's the Mark Ingrahm problem which I am sure a lot of people remember.

[image]Then there's a whole thread on @IsaacKing exploits here, with varying opinions, relating to whether rules need to be clearly spelled out, or whether a certain level of non-anti-social environment must be relied upon for a system to work, e.g., "we live in a society."

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1100521704578625618



Prediction Markets Poll: What Is the Best Way To Solve the, "Alts," Problem On *Any* Prediction Markets Platform?

Market Manipulation: Alts can be used to manipulate market outcomes, which undermines the accuracy and reliability of the predictions.

Unfair Advantages: Users with alts might have multiple chances to win or hedge bets unfairly compared to single-account users.

Dilution of Trust: The presence of alts can erode trust in the platform, as users may feel that the playing field is not level.

Resource Drain: Alts can consume resources disproportionately, leading to scalability issues and affecting platform performance.

Distorted Incentives: The existence of alts might encourage a culture of gaming the system rather than genuine participation.

Skewed Data: Alts can skew market data and analysis, making it difficult to extract meaningful insights.

Barrier to Entry: Knowing that alts are in play might deter new users from joining the platform, perceiving it as unwelcoming or overly competitive.