Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Question

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1183457/iot-connected-devices-worldwide/

OK, let's be serious. Will the number of devices connected to the Internet really triple between 2020 and 2030?

The above link is a forecast and as far as I can tell, it's just a claim from a marketer. Is there a proxy we can use which is independently verifiable and will that proxy show that the number of devices really tripled?

I'm trying to inject a healthy dose of skepticism but either a YES or a NO on this could be wrong, however the threshold really does need to be 3X for the sake of creating a binary bet.

Resolution will be from pinging Shodan at the time of resolution, and comparing 2020 to 2030:

https://blog.shodan.io/historical-ip-information/

Resolves as N/A if no fair, independently verified third party source can be found.

Apr 19, 12:10pm: [Another IoT Bet] Will the Number of Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030? → Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 64% chance (18 traders, as of Jul 20, 2025).