Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Question

Will the Trump administration send out checks, direct deposit, or any other form of stimulus that they publicly attribute to "money saved by the Department of Government Efficiency" by November 5th, 2026? This will resolve Yes based on the payment going out and being labelled as such, even if the DOGE didn't actually save enough money to pay for it. The spirit of this market is whether such a branding event will happen, not whether it will be economically authentic.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments. AI edits are not legitimate.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (54 traders, as of Feb 18, 2026).