Will anyone who previously received a presidential pardon be charged/prosecuted/arrested by the Trump administration?

Question

This market resolves Yes if, before the end of Trump's second term, any person who was previously the recipient of a presidential pardon, is charged with a crime by the justice department or any other legal entity usually restricted by presidential pardons, for a crime that would normally be considered to have been encompassed by that person's pardon. Even if the previous pardon was given by Trump, or the crime was preemptively pardoned at the time, or there is an arrest without a charge (so long as there is some implication from official Trump admin channels that the arrest/charge/etc. was due to the pardoned crime).

Otherwise, this market resolves No on January 21st, 2029. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments. Please note that the spirit of this market is whether Trump effectively rescinds or ignores past presidential pardons to new legal ends. A pardon recipient charged for a novel crime, or a threat of new prosecution against pardon recipients that never amounts to any legal action, will not be sufficient to resolve Yes. If a person merely seems from context to have been targeted for a past grievance with a relevant pardon, but the explicit reason given for their arrest/charge is entirely a new unpardoned crime, then it will not be sufficient for a Yes.

In the edge case that a new legal or paramilitary element acts to arrest someone for a pardoned crime, the market will treat Trump's tacit endorsement as a Yes and any material action by Trump to prevent that (vigilante) action as on track for a No.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 24% chance (35 traders, as of Oct 10, 2026).