Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?

Question

Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Minor Wars or Major Wars categories on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. Unlike previous versions of this market, we are now using article titles for existing civil conflicts, and are only using country pairings for conflicts not already on the page. If a new conflict article or country pairing gets folded into an existing article, the question will only resolve Yes if the encompassing article is both over the threshold AND the beligerents from the country pairing fought in the current year. This means that changes in Wiki policy or recategorization of past articles should not count by themselves for this market. But a newly escalated India vs. Pakistan conflict can resolve Yes whether it's folded into the Kashmir article or not. Likewise, article vandalism or edit wars will be given time to resolve on Wikipedia before resolving here.

A conflict will only resolve N/A if there is a high-traffic multi-party trading event that is driven by a misunderstanding with no reasonable solution after asking non-invested mods. One guy misreading the wikipedia rules won't result in an N/A, but 12 people arguing about a 5-way civil war whose article is still getting vandalized in February of 2027 might. If a wiki entry is added to Minor Wars or Major Wars categories merely because of a retroactive addendum to its 2025 numbers, that will not be sufficient to resolve it Yes for 2026. This market resolves at the end of January 2027 in order to give trailing death toll numbers one extra month to be added. At that time, all unresolved conflicts will resolve No.

The spirit of this market is concerned with actual deadly escalation of group conflict. Feel free to ask questions in the comments.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Insurgencies in Iran, followed by Insurgencies in Pakistan and Iraqi Conflict are most likely. See the market for live updates (73 traders, as of Apr 24, 2026).