Republicans back off and accept a mostly neutral CR

Republicans go nuclear and pass their agenda

I will not be betting in this market as it is beyond The Subjective Clusterfuck Horizon. My focus for resolution will be on how non-editorial content in major international press like CNN and the Economist frame the ultimate outcome. I can consider editorial content secondarily if one side seems to be having a victory lap while the other is mostly silent. I will not be waiting for midterm elections, but snap polling could factor in if it's outside of expected partisan outcomes of "slightly against the GOP." "Other" could end up meaning anything from "an unexpected tradeoff ends up the centerpiece of the resolution" to "Democrats discover super saiyan powers and get GOP concessions somehow," but is overall fairly unlikely.

The spirit of this market is about who wins the shutdown and in what way. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.